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Public instruments for business management in Chilean wine industry: A comparative analysis of discrete choice models. In Chile there is a wide availability of public instruments to promote productivity in business management, which in practice serve as financial hedge instruments.

Based on multivariate analysis the authors estimate the probability of using public instruments in Chilean wine maddalz comparing logit and probit models. Results inroduccion that probability depends on different socioeconomic variables and sources of risk.

The global correct prediction was estimated in In Chile there is a wide variety of public instruments to promote productivity in business management, especially in risk management and innovation. In practice, they play a role as financial hedge instruments, such as insurances, futures and derivates.

Different to other markets, incomplete markets are observed in the agricultural sector due to the relative shortage of uncertainty and risk management instruments, such as insurances, loans, futures and derivates.

According to Skees and Barnettas risk coverage is clearly less than the social optimum, an economic efficiency loss is incurred. The poor development of financial coverage instruments is usually used as an argument to justify government intervention in agriculture.

econmoetria On the other hand, Meuwissen et al. Anderson argues that farmers are exposed to many risks, and there is often a lack of instruments to manage them correctly. The solution to this problem implies many strategies prevention, mitigation, adaptation and dispositions informal, market based, public to face risk, and the instruments have to consider the sources and characteristics of agricultural risk. Innes and Hardaker et al.

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Innes concluded that aids or ex ante compensations contribute better to select those producers who assume risk and improve efficiency of public spending, in comparison to those that guarantee a generalized support once the event has occurred.

The multivariate analysis techniques McFadden, ; Altman et al.

In financial economy, research is focused in predicting the probability of bankruptcy in financial markets Johnsen and Melicher, ; Lennox, ; Westgaard and Wijst, ; Grunert et al. Using a sample of wineries and restrained introducvion logit models, Lobos and Viviani and Lobos propose a model to predict the probability to use public instruments in Chilean wine industry.

This research ihtroduccion an extension of previous works and its contribution lies in the generation of logit and probit models comparing the Chilean wine producers economteria to use these public instruments for a smaller sample. The main objective of this study is to identify economerria variables that influence the probability to use public instruments in Chilean economeria industry, through comparative analysis mzddala logit and probit models.

The data used in this research was compiled between January and October of through the application of a questionnaire about risk sources in Chilean wine industry see Lobos, The questionnaire has seven sections and was applied in companies located in most of the wine producing valleys of Chile. Each measurable variable was captured through indicators, which were measured using Likert type scales of five and seven points. In other cases open and closed questions were used dichotomic and multiple optionsand interval and nominal scales.


In this investigation a sample of 84 wineries was used, smaller than the one used in Lobos and Viviani and Lobos works. With the objective economftria contrasting the influence of the principal explanatory variables over the decision of using public instruments, the models binomial logit and probit were considered, in which the use of public instruments was introduced as dependent variable, and various socioeconomic variables and sources of risk were introduced as explanatory variables see Table I.

The logit and probit models are usually econometrai by the method ecconometria maximum likelihood Greene, ; Wooldridge, originally proposed by Fisher as a ical estimation method of the parameters associated with density functions or random variables probability. We are interested in the response probability Lobos et al. To evaluate the goodness-of-fit of the models different statistical tests were used: It is possible to evaluate the global predictive power of the logit and probit models using Receiver Operating Characteristic ROC curve analysis Lloyd, ; Cai and Pepe, ; Zhou and Castelluccio, The area under the ROC curve introducccion then be interpreted as the probability that in the presence of a couple of observed cases like 1 and 0 the test would classify them correctly Hanley and McNeil, The sample includes wineries located in the main wine producing valleys of Chile: In 32 companies there were less than 12 permanent workers and in 52 there were more than 12 workers.

In this research companies were grouped in small and large wineries: The estimated parameters and the results of z-statistic of all the variables included in the models generated are shown in Table III.

This result suggests that winegrowers are more willing to use public instruments when the vineyard has long term contracts availability. The sign on USGR is negative in logit and probit models. This result, even though it is not statistically significant, indicates that winegrowers are less willing to use public instruments when the company is using insurance contracts.

The positive sign on IBOL indicates an increase in the probability of using public instruments if the company has made investments in stock exchange markets during the past five years. Lastly, the positive sign on AIMV economegria that if winegrowers perceive that the access to wine market information is easy, then the probability of using public instruments would increase.

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The results shown in Table V indicate that the comparison of the forecasted results with the data observed through a ification table implies that the global correct prediction is On the other introducciion, the sensitivity The area under the ROC curve suggests that there is a probability of Expectation-Prediction evaluation for binary specification of the models estimated via Maximum Likelihood ML method.

The main contribution of this study is to facilitate business management in the wine industry, through an empirical investigation that allows to model Chilean vineyard ,addala behavior respect to the use of public instruments to promote productivity. The study is necessarily exploratory, as like most exploratory studies the results are based on a sub-optimal sample. This investigation has also shown the usefulness of discrete choice models logit and probit in identifying the individual characteristics that influence the probability of using public instruments in the wine-growing industry management.

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As it is suggested in the literature Amemiya, ; Maddala, the coefficients of probit model are related to approximately 0. In general, the sign of the coefficients confirm the previous perception about the factors that positively influence on the probability of using public instruments. The relations described seem to agree with previous perception and economic theory. Ecomometria existence of contracts with longer durations decreases risk and the uncertainty over future cash flows, allowing increasing the willingness to use public instruments to improve management in middle term.


In the case of the number of introdhccion known by the firm, the better the perception about their utility, the greater the disposition to use them.

The access to external advice allows decision makers to be more informed about the variety and availability of econometdia instruments for business management, contributing positively to the use of them.

The knowledge of weather derivates functioning influences negatively on the probability of using public instruments.

This could be explained because weather derivates are relatively new instruments for financial coverage, and those who normally know them are decision makers from wineries that have a business management more oriented to market instruments, and usually participate in insurance contracts and forward transactions.

The results of the goodness-of-fit indicate that in all the evaluated models of regression a good global fit is achieved, with a preference towards the probit over the logit model.

Nevertheless, both the indicators of the ification table and the area under the ROC curve allow to deduce that the global predicting power of the logit and probit models is high.

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Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics31 Attitude toward risk, theoretical implications of an experiment in rural India. Economic Journal91 Explaining agricultural and agrarian policies in developing countries. Journal of Economic Literature35 Semiparametric receiver operating characteristic analysis to evaluate biomarkers for disease.

Journal of the American Statistical Association97 Australian Journal of Management31 A general definition of residuals with discussion. Entidad Estatal de Seguros Agrarios. On the mathematical foundations of the theoretical statistics.

London, The role of non-financial factors in internal credit ratings. Journal of Banking and Finance29 The meaning and use of the area under a receiver operating characteristic ROC curve. Radiology, The determination of the order of an autoregression. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society4 Coping with risk in agriculture. The impact ecobometria wine introducfion on wine purchases: International Journal of Wine Marketing17 A goodness-of-fit test for the multiple logistic regression model.

Communications in StatisticsA10, American Journal of Agricultural Economics85 Applied multivariate data analysis. Predicting corporate bankruptcy and financial distress: Journal of Economics and Business46 Journal of Economics and Business51 Using smoothed receiver operating characteristic curves to summarize and compare diagnostic system.

Journal of the American Statistical Association93 Predicting probability to purchase insurance contracts in the Chilean wine industry: